18 September 2007
INTERNATIONAL DEMAND WILL EXCEED SUPPLY, SAYS NEW IDP RESEARCH
REPORT
The number of international students seeking
an Australian university education will almost double in the next
two decades, challenging universities’ ability to deal with the
demand, says new research by IDP Education.
Chief Executive Anthony Pollock said
Global Student Mobility: An Australian Perspective Five Years
On, predicts that demand by international students for higher
education in Australia will rise to 291,000 by 2025 – from 163 000
in 2005 – a compounding growth rate of 2.9 per cent.
It also forecasts that the number of students
studying in higher education outside their home countries will grow
almost 80 per cent to 3.7 million in 2025 from 2.2 million in 2005.
[See graph below 2007 global demand]
The new research, based on economic and
demographic projections in student source countries, revisits the
2002 landmark work Global Student Mobility 2025. Authors
Melissa Banks, Alan Olsen and David Pearce will present their
findings at the Australian International Education
Conference 2007 in Melbourne from 9-12
October.
“Australian educational institutions
have an outstanding opportunity to extend their reputations as high
quality international providers, competitive with the world’s best
– by leveraging increased export income, ” Mr Pollock said.
But individual universities’ capacity and
willingness to cope with the increase is expected to vary, with
demand exceeding supply by 2020. [See graph below 2007 demand
and supply].
“Of the 38 universities that responded to the
research, only 19 said they had both appetite and capacity to
double their numbers, while the other 19 said they did not,” Mr
Pollock said.
Based on the universities’ response, the
growth in supply of Australian university places for international
students out to 2025 is forecast to be:
• 5%
per year to 2010, then:
• 4%
per year to 2012
•
2-3% per year to 2017
• 1%
per year to 2025.
However the authors also note that Australia’s
changing demographics will mean little growth in domestic demand
for higher education over a corresponding period. [See graph below
Australia: 18 year olds]
“There is an opportunity for institutions to
creatively maintain their critical mass by balancing stronger
international demand with flat domestic numbers,” Mr Pollock
said.
International education is an $11.3 billion
export industry for Australia, with higher education making the
largest contribution. Vocational training, English language
training and other education sectors, however, also benefit from
international student mobility.
Full findings from the research will be
presented at the Australian International Education Conference 2007
at the Melbourne Convention Centre from 9-12 October 2007. For more
information about AIEC 2007 go to www.idp.com/aiec.
For further information please contact:
Tim Dodd, 0407 440 160
